Bitcoin’s performance in September, which saw it closing the month in the green, has captured the attention of analysts at the renowned crypto exchange Bitfinex. Their observations have led them to suggest that this could be an indication of a bullish October for the leading cryptocurrency.
Looking at historical data, a positive September has often set the stage for a bullish October in the Bitcoin market. Bitfinex analysts emphasize that during September, the combined crypto market cap experienced a rare occurrence of closing positively, with a 6.1% increase. This increase signals a promising trend for Bitcoin.
The Factors Pointing Towards Increased Volatility and Upside Potential
Bitfinex’s Alpha report for the week highlights several factors that support a forecast of increased volatility and potential upside for Bitcoin in the coming month.
Firstly, metrics from the futures market and other indicators suggest the possibility of more significant price movements, particularly on higher timeframes. This implies that traders should anticipate potential price swings.
“When implied volatility surpasses historical volatility, it often indicates that traders are bracing for increased price swings.” – Bitfinex Analysts
Secondly, the crypto options market is also indicating signs of anticipating higher market volatility, further supporting the notion of potential upside for Bitcoin.
Bitfinex’s report also references on-chain data that reveals strong support for Bitcoin’s current price levels. It appears that long-term holders are determined to maintain their positions, contributing to the cryptocurrency’s stability.
Additionally, the report notes that Bitcoin held for periods between 6 and 12 months remains relatively static. On the other hand, BTC supply aged more than three years has been largely inactive since February 2023. These trends suggest that long-term investors are holding onto their Bitcoin holdings, a practice often referred to as “HODLing” in crypto circles.
September Performance and Outlook
Bitcoin began September at approximately $25,900 and closed the month just under $27,000, representing a 3.9% gain for the month. This positive performance in September has set an optimistic tone for the potential of Bitcoin in the coming month of October.
“If history is any indication, a positive September often leads to a bullish October in the Bitcoin market.” – Bitfinex Analysts
Given the various factors supporting increased volatility and the strong historical correlation between September and October performance, analysts at Bitfinex believe that a bullish trend may be on the horizon for Bitcoin. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on the market as October unfolds.
